Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.Week 14 of the NFL regular season kicks off tonight with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:15 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51.5)
The Packers (9-3) have won three straight games and just dismissed the Dolphins 30-17, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (11-1) have won ten straight games and just edged the Bears 23-20 but failed to cover as 9.5-points home favorites.The early opener for this game was Detroit listed as high as a 6-point home favorite. This line quickly got adjusted down to Lions -5.5, then Lions -4.5 and now Lions -3.5, which is where we sit on gameday. Several shops are juicing up Packers +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible evaporation of the hook and further tumble down to the key number of 3. The movement toward Green Bay has been steady and consistent all week. What’s even more notable is the fact that the public is rushing to the window to lay the points the Detroit (64% of spread bets at DraftKings), yet the line has continued to move away from the Lions. In other words, why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding Detroit to begin with? Because respected sharp money has sided with the Packers plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog.
Green Bay has notable “bet against the public” value, as the Packers are only taking in 36% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game. At Circa Sports, which prides itself on welcoming sharp action, Green Bay is receiving 48% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Packers have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Road divisional dogs are 18-10 ATS (64%) this season and 175-132 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2019. Primetime conference dogs getting 3-points or more are 96-77 ATS (56%) with a 7% ROI since 2019. Jordan Love is 5-2 ATS (71%) in his career as a dog of 3-points or more. Green Bay also has value as a “dog who can score” system match (26.5 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering.
In terms of the total, it hasn’t budged much off the opener of 51.5. This lack of movement is notable because the public is pounding the over (66% of bets at both DraftKings and Circa), yet the total hasn’t risen. This indicates a bit of a sharp under line freeze, with books reluctant to increase the total for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian under bettors. When the total is 50 or more (high total), the under is 10-6 (63%) this season and 33-17 (66%) with a 26% ROI since 2022. Primetime totals of 47 or more are 29-18 to the under (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2022. Detroit is 7-5 to the under this season. Green Bay is 6-5-1 to the under.
Player Prop to Consider
Tim Patrick over 23.5 receiving yards (-110): Patrick has gone over this number in three straight games. He just caught 2 passes for 48 yards last week at home against the Bears. The Packers are allowing 217.3 passing yards per game, ranking 17th in the NFL. However, over their past three games Green Bay is giving up 248.3 passing yards per game. With the Packers expected to focus their defense gameplan on Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, this could provide favorable matchups for the 6’5” veteran Patrick against lesser defenders. This game will also be played indoors and features a high total, which both benefit offensive production.
